According to super pollster John Zogby, whom The Washington Post calls "the maverick predictor," the conventional wisdom about the United States--that we're isolated from the world, politically fragmented, and inclined toward material pleasure--isn't just flawed; it may be 180 degrees from the truth. In this far-reaching and illuminating look at contemporary American life, Zogby reveals nothing less than The Way We'll Be. Drawing on thousands of in-depth surveys conducted especially for the book, Zogby points out where we're headed--politically, culturally, and spiritually.

The American dream is in transition; it is rapidly being redefined by four meta-movements: living with limits as consumers and citizens; embracing diversity of views and ways of life; looking inward to find spiritual comfort; and demanding authenticity from the media, our leaders, and leading institutions. Spearheaded by today's eighteen-to-twenty-nine-year-olds--the "First Global" generation--Americans are becoming more internationalist, consensus-oriented, and environmentally conscious and less willing to identify themselves by the things they do to earn or spend their money. But this is more than a youth tide. Americans of all ages are moving beyond old divides--red state/blue state, pro-life/pro-choice, beer drinker/wine connoisseur--to form a new national consensus that will shape the nation for decades to come.

Zogby's cogent analysis of the data yields an astonishing perspective on Americans' thoughts, feelings, and beliefs, now and in coming years. Understanding this emerging reality will be key for

• leaders in all fields who want to reach audiences that are more media-savvy, better informed, and more technologically enabled than ever before

• individuals in search of rewarding and fulfilling careers in tomorrow's growth fields

• politicians and CEOs looking to marry policies and practices to the rising demand for social responsibility

• anyone who wants to market to the emerging new American consensus

Beyond telling a fascinating story, the conclusions in this book are a must-read for everyone from Main Street to Madison Avenue to Capitol Hill. Filled with expert analysis and insight from one of today's most successful predictors and trend spotters, The Way We'll Be will redefine how we view America's future.

From the Hardcover edition.

1

The Art, Science, and

Power of the Poll

Most people think of me as a political pollster, and rightly so. Much of my public profile is tied to politics, especially during presidential and congressional campaigns. But politics makes up less than a quarter of the work I do. The overwhelming majority of my professional time is devoted to measuring and interpreting public opinion for corporations and other business interests and for professional organizations. While voters get to vote only once or twice a year, consumers vote with their wallets every day.

Besides, as different as they might seem, political and consumer polling are pretty much the same thing. In both instances, we make choices based not just on price and value, or promises and policy, but on unconscious signals that we receive and interpret to satisfy our unconscious selves. Business leaders and politicians often miss this essential point. Our minds think in similes and metaphors-we search for comparisons with which we are comfortable to help us understand the unknown. To get to this deeper level of decision- making, good survey research goes beyond simply asking respondents if they prefer Product A or B, or Candidate C over Candidate D.

Good research has to include creative questions that tease out the public's deeper values and identities, and the questions themselves need to avoid whenever possible charged phrasing that can badly skew responses. That's particularly true with political polling. As George Lakoff shows so effectively in Don't Think of an Elephant, controlling the language on key issues gives a party a big leg up in controlling voter response. If we had asked a survey sampling in, say, the spring of 2007 whether the United States should "cut and run" in Iraq, the results would have been far more negative-and far less reflective of true public opinion-than if we had asked the same question in neutral language that included a phrase such as "troop withdrawal." On the other hand, if the aim had been to manufacture positive numbers for the president, "cut and run" would have been just the words to use.

The point is that asking questions is only the beginning of good polling: The way you ask them, the language you use, and the effort you make to broaden the connection with those being surveyed all determine the value and ultimately the accuracy of the collective response. Only policy wonks have opinions about HR Bill 313, but if HR Bill 313 happens to concern, say, the quality of drinking water in exurban communities, just about everyone has an opinion on that. The challenge is to put a question in terms people can understand and react to without losing the reason for asking the question in the first place.

An example: On the Saturday before the November 2000 presidential election, I inserted for the first time into our daily survey of four hundred likely voters the following question as a way of leap- frogging past the horse race aspects of the contest to the underlying motivation of voters:

You live in the land of Oz and there is an important election for mayor this year. The candidates are the Tin Man, who is all brains and no heart, and the Scarecrow, who is all heart and no brains. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

We could have simply asked voters whether on Election Day they were more likely to cast their ballot for someone who was highly intelligent or someone who was highly empathetic. By then, the stereotypes were well-established: Al Gore was a master of policy and governmental detail, but he was wooden in a crowd and on the debating stage. George W. Bush, by contrast, was widely perceived to be loosey-...

 

 

 

The Way We'll Be by John Zogby
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